Coffee is subject to climate change. Who will grow coffee where and how in the future, what it will taste like, and whether it will become more expensive — that's what our new video is about.
Last summer I read a book that has shaped my thinking and actions ever since. It's called "The Good Ancestor" by Roman Krznaric.
In it, Krznaric discusses concepts that can help us think for future generations and thus critically examine our actions.
We know that our decisions have long-term consequences: in our personal lives, professionally, and yes, also when we drink coffee.
Because the coffee tree planted today will face increasingly difficult circumstances in the future. Maybe it will become drier, or wetter, or cooler, hotter, or there will be new disease mutations that will affect the coffee tree.
The effects of climate change influence coffee production, but exactly how and where is still unpredictable. So it's actually not at all certain whether we'll still be able to drink coffee in 2050. In short: we will still drink coffee in 27 years, but not in the way we do today.
In the podcast series Coffea Futurica, I speak with guests about future scenarios for how we can better grow, process, roast, trade, and prepare coffee.
The coffee of the future
Maybe the coffee will still taste similar, but what happens on the way to our coffee cup will have changed dramatically.
We all have a hand in determining the future of coffee.
◉ Through the intention of how we buy coffee
◉ Through our preference for what we like in coffee
◉ Through the idea of what kind of agriculture we want to support
I recently laid out these thoughts in a video and discuss the following points.
The following questions are discussed in detail in the video; here is a brief summary.
Where will the coffee of the future come from?
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, will be hit hard by climate warming. Certain regions are warming significantly and drought stress is increasing.
In other regions, a changed climate is suddenly opening up new opportunities: in Uruguay or Portugal, the climate will be suitable for coffee cultivation in a few years. The demographic upheavals that come with this are still incalculable — but they will be clearly felt.
Who will grow it?
Small farms that today already lack direct market access, are in debt, and know little about their coffee's potential will disappear. The financial and psychological burden is too great to grow a product with a long horizon in increasingly unpredictable circumstances, one that only yields returns after three years.
The future belongs to producers who are well-networked and flexible, who can adapt their knowledge and soil potential to circumstances, and who are as entrepreneurial as they are sensorially skilled.
What will coffee taste like in the future?
The same and different. The large mass will likely taste similar, because coffee from warmer regions often shows less complexity. And as it gets warmer, there will be more regions producing coffee with a mass market taste. More specialty coffees will continue to exist, but demand here is also rising rapidly, which will make the market more competitive.
Will coffee become more expensive in the future?
Yes, it will likely become gradually more expensive. This has to do with rising cost of living, hopefully increasingly better wages for coffee producers, and competition for labor. Some places will be mechanized more than others, but the industrialization of coffee production is not equally possible everywhere.
I would therefore argue: if coffee doesn't become more expensive, we should view that critically.
Prices have risen everywhere over the past year, so why shouldn't a product that travels around the world also become more expensive?
Above all, there will be a segment in the coffee market that will grow strongly: the one that has recognized that nature is not free. In this segment, coffees will have the price it takes to shape agriculture in a way that benefits people and the environment.
What is our role in this? And what can we do?
All of us who drink coffee, we who roast, buy, and produce? We can all help shape the coffee of the future.
Two simple ways are:
1. Those who buy directly from roasteries have the opportunity to ask where exactly the coffee comes from, how it was produced, and whether this coffee is ethically and environmentally responsible.
2. Those who buy coffee in the supermarket can opt for double-certified coffees (organic and fair trade). Perhaps this will only make the coffee world somewhat better, but above all it won't make it worse. And that's a good start.
As a company with the mission to view coffee as a whole, provide impulses, and make the world a little better through coffee, the current and future challenges are a driving force like never before to help shape the future.
Where there are questions and uncertainties, there are opportunities. We stay on it, seek answers, and want to use these opportunities with all those involved in the coffee chain.
More on the topic "Coffee of the Future": Podcast Coffea Futurica
Our coffees from projects focusing on regenerative agriculture:
Toca - Espresso, Mexico
Here we support a newly created cooperative in its transition from conventional to organic and regenerative production
Mamy - Espresso, Guinea
Macenta Beans' project works with Canephora producers who by nature don't use synthetic fertilizers and grow coffee in the rainforest
Flhor - Espresso, long coffee, Honduras
18 Conejo are our long-standing partners with a focus on biodynamic coffees. As the first certified organic producer, 18 Conejo remains a pioneer in natural cultivation to this day
Apas - Espresso, Brazil
In January 2023, the first container of organic-certified Apas coffee shipped out. A milestone in our partnership, because organic coffee in Brazil is a rarity.
