CONAB released their 3rd estimate for the 2015/16 coffee crop. They reduced it by the second time to 42.2 million bags from 44.3 million (June 2015), being 31.3 million of Arabicas (32.9 in June) and 10.9 million of Conilons (11.4 in June).
Meteorologists continue forecasting dry weather conditions for the coffee belt, particularly for Cerrado and Zona da Mata in central Minas Gerais state and also for Conilon areas in the north of Espirito Santo. South of Minas main producing area has been dry as well but some scattered and local rains have occurred which keeps the area less dryness affected. However the whole excellent flowering occurred in September is under risk, as rains are crucial for the buds development.
According to meteorologists good and ample rains were expected to fall from northern of Parana, Sao Paulo, South of Minas, part of Cerrado and good part of Zona da Mata. This wetter pattern should induce final flowering in those plants who still have space for it. These rains are also welcomed for cherry setting and to start the development of newer cherries as well.
Conilons areas at the north of Espirito Santo are facing completely different climate conditions than the other Southeast areas. Reservoirs are either empty or at very low levels. The drinking water distribution until the taps of the houses is erratic and complicated. Most of the Conilon´s plantations are irrigated and the water´s usage is restricted which may cause (unknown) problems for the proper cherries development. The non irrigated areas obviously suffer more and consequently should face even more damages. The bumper crop expected for next year should not materialize ! However, as it is said, Robusta´s trees are strong, resistant, therefore should recover (partially or totally), if weather conditions improve.
Everyone seems to be still concerned with the availability for big screen coffees, specially for fine coffees. The premium for these qualities has increased 25 cents in the last few months, despite of a strong USD.
Market remains tight and not liquid at all. Producers and long holders remain selective sellers with an eye opened to weather forecasts.
Zona da Mata producers are too concerned with dry weather consequences on their farms. Although flowering has been promising they are praying for rains to get little buds into cherries.
These worries regarding next crop obviously reflect on their trade behavior therefore they are reducing quantities on offer and increase their selling basis.
Producers are scared of the weather conditions, temperatures warmed too fast after the winter, Very little amount of rains in the Northern of ES, the level of the water in the rivers are small and the Governor of ES decided to forbid the irrigation for 15 days in the region.
Most coffee regions entering into the main picking weeks (main crop) and 2 points seem to take up all the discussions: lack of labour and lack of rains. First week of October very hot and completely dry,forecast for more of the same. Even getting enough water for washing coffee in the wet mills is now a problem. Yields of this main crop have been affected, more or less depending on altitude and micro-climates, and especially in the center and north of the country. Exporters prior 8% loss estimate for nationwide main crop volume is now going up to 10%. Instead of a 5 k cherry to 1 k parchment conversion, we are now at 6,5 to 7 k. Parchment to exportable Excelso yield is also very poor.
An the broca making a feast, so a difficult story developing as internal prices very reduced by poor yields. Good news are some rains at the end of the month are alleviating the situation in central and northern growing regions.
In order to increase the income of colombian producers, the National Coffee Growers Committee recently authorized the export of coffee beans that do not conform with the minimum Excelso Quality Export standards described in Resolution No. 5 of 2002 for Café de Colombia, including those beans known as Pasillas & Segundas.
This measure seeks to improve the profitability of Colombia´s coffee growers and enhance their revenues with higher prices for beans that are usually traded in specific segments and market niches of the domestic market.
Colombia will produce more than 13.0 million 60 kilo bags this year, Roberto Velez from FNC said. Colombia output has been steady recovering, thanks to new decease resistance varieties and better weather.
Colombian coffee growers face soaring labor costs and harvesting delays as pickers leave for better-paid construction jobs. Construction has replaced oil and mining as the main motor of economic growth in the Andean nation. Farm labor may become even scarcer when work begins on President Juan Manuel Santos’ $17 billion highway program known as 4G, which aims to build 1,300 kilometers of new roads by 2018 and cut travel time between industrial centers and ports.
At this time activities consist of harvesting the crop, maintenance and infrastructure related to coffee pickers and necessary repairs to wet mills.
The harvest started only in the lower zones for Extra primes and Primes, the main crop
will come in from December onwards. Qualities and quantities are looking promising.
Conditions are too wet for drying and picking,
El Salvador exported 11,475 bags of coffee in September, the National Coffee Council CSC reports, up 22% from the same month last year. That brings the total for the completed crop year to 597,683 bags, up 20% from 499,020 bags in the 2013/2014 season.
The crop 2015/16 is now on the way with pickings in the lower production areas only.
Qualities arriving at mills are still on the lower side with high defect count and low yields.
Weather conditions are fair with a mix of sun and rain with colder and shorter days.
Nicaragua exported 1,766,161 60-kg bags of coffee in the crop year which ended in September, up 0.2% from 1,770,043 bags in the 2013-2014 season, national export center Cetrex estimates.
The 14/15 crop 14/15 is finished but Cetrex hasn’t been able to come with the final export numbers yet.
Exporters estimate final 14/15 crop to be on target to 1.82 million bags and a possible carry over of 80,000 bags.
For the crop of 15/16 exporters estimate 1.85 to 1.95 million bags. So, Nicaragua keeps on growing with quality and consistent coffee.
Same as in Costa Rica, nicaraguan producers are nervous as they have invested a lot of money on their plantations and as the market has been erasing there might be no possibilities to gain back their money.
For both origins but mostly for Nicaragua, producers, millers and coops will not have any alternative as to sell soon / now to reliable houses in order to get advance money from financial parties against the assignment of fresh contracts.
The crop 14/15 has finished and final numbers have been released by ICAFE. The final number is around 1.4 million bags of 60 Kg which is a -3.5% below 13/14 crop.
The Crop 15/16 is developing ok, thanks for September and so far October strong rainy pattern all over the country (usual for this time of the year); however we are still behind accumulated rains. Drier & hot rainy season and choppy rain regime before that time has for sure placed a burden on the size of bean and the size of next year crop. It will be a concentrated short crop so careful with quality of processing. Exporters foresee a good crop on quality terms specially good cup & character, similar to the last one.
Exporters and cooperatives sitting on some good quantities of coffee waiting for a higher
ICE market to sell out later. It looks that the internal market started to realize that they missed the
boat. The coops are still hoping that the Fair Trade premium will solve part of the problems.
ARFIC (L’Autorité de Régulation de la Filière Café du Burundi) have now finalized the cherry deliveries for 2015/16. The Fully Washed crop is estimated at 15,400 MT. Multinational companies led the way in terms of cherry collection and efficiency of assets. Around 340 MT of washed coffee has been sold. Washed coffee is usually about 30% of the total crop so this figure looks low. Assuming the coffee is still in Burundi it suggests large washed stocks held by exporters.
Over the last year there doesn’t appear to have been a great deal of progress regarding the third round of privatization.
In general there is a lot of coffee that is unsold in Burundi. About one third of the Burundi’s Fully Washed crop has been contracted. Exporters are reluctant to sell at these market levels, and are still adjusting to lower, year on year, differentials.
Some areas in southern Ethiopia reporting that harvesting started with nice quality and volume on the trees.
More rains will be needed for the ripening of main crop coffees, but also to provoke and fix early crop flowering. It’s been dry and dusty in Nairobi, though rains have been reported in many parts of the coffee growing regions along Mt Kenya.
At the end of the month scattered showers in various locations indicated that the rains are arriving – certainly rural areas have been bigger beneficiaries so far and exporters look forward to some additional relief in coming weeks in Nairobi.
The new standard gauge railway, largely financed and being built by the Chinese, is reportedly 55% complete. Once finalized, it will be a huge boost for trade volumes and efficiency
The weather is sunny and dry. Small holder producers begin preparing their farms ahead of the rains.
Coffee exports in September in Uganda amounted 286.322 bags (232.702 Robusta and Arabica 53.260), while the total of the period October 2014/September 2015 achieved the 3.46 million bags (2.72 Robusta and 0.73 Arabica). These figures means a decrease of 1.26% than the quantity exported same period of the previous year.
Uganda is waiting for the new crop to start arriving to the warehouses late October, and the spirits are high, both in terms of quantity and quality.
At the moment however, there´s not much coffee around, and sellers are not matching any buying interest.
The prospects of new crop looks good at this point of time. The general impression is that
the Arabica production will be higher by 15 – 20%. Robusta production could be the same or
marginally lower. However, these expectations will depend on weather conditions for the next few
months. The Arabica producers feel that the current market prices are discouraging them to produce Arabica coffee. They are fetching almost 3 times prices for intercrop Black Pepper and Cardamom. The coffee regions got sufficient and timely rains. Therefore the quality of new crop Arabica is expected to be good.
Dry conditions prevail throughout the highlands regions but sporadic isolated pockets of light rains have brought some relief to the predominantly dry landscape.
Crop reports are still positive for 15/16. Cherries are ripening in a good way and the water reservoirs are still at acceptable levels but the rainfall is 13 % below the 8 year average figures The weather is sunny with some intermittent rains, normal for October. Farmers are ‘planting’ pillars for pepper growing all around, the question will be, how much water does pepper need inside coffee plantation ?
Arabica harvesting is under way in low lands of Lam Dong province, the most important growing area for Vietnam’s Arabica.
Robusta harvesting is expected to start little by little in the next 3 or 4 weeks if weather conditions permit it.
In a country that receives a dozen of typhoons or cyclones every year, the absence of them by now is good but cannot be underestimated. It may be even worse if arrives during peak time of harvesting.
The weather (El Nino) and the haze are the main topics. Both continue without a sign that it will end soon, rain is badly needed to stop the various fires in Sumatra that create this haze and as some areas did not have a drop of rain during the last 4 months, one fears for the worse. That this will have an impact is clear, if it affects the coffee areas we will know soon, as after the flowering the trees need water, if this doesn’t happen the flowers will abort.
Peet´s coffee, the American coffee roaster owned by JAB holding group (owners of Jacobs Douwe Egberts and Caribou coffee as well) has acquired Stumptown coffee. Although Stumptown coffee has only 10 outlets, this roaster has made a name for itself as one of the most innovative roasters in the specialty coffee arena.
Sources: Volcafe, Atte, Taylor Winch, ICONA, Flavour
„Water is the most important variable in the preparation...