It has rained substantially over coffee areas from Parana, Sao Paulo and big part of South of Minas. The wet cold mass was concentrated from the south until part of south of Minas. Other areas of Minas Gerais state- Cerrado-Zona da Mata, Bahia and Espirito Santo did not get those rains. The trees seem to have recovered and need continuous, usual wet weather conditions to offset the effects of the hot summer period. It looks unlikely the country suffers summer dryness for the 3rd consecutive season. CONAB announced soon start auctions of old coffee from government stocks for local roasters. Auctions shall be of 150.000 bags, twice a month. Total government stocks are roughly 1.5 million bags of good grade all yellow old taste. Group 1: South of Minas cooperatives keep asking prices above BRL$500.00 for fine qualities no matter if current or previous crop. Cooperative managers reporting that producers do not seem to be in any urgent cash needs therefore they keep holding back offers. Group 2: Producers and long holders are resisting selling at current prices which are below Conilons therefore the total quantity traded is really small day by day. Conilon: Small and medium size local roasters (more flexible to adapt/change blends) have already cut or some even stopped the usage of Conilon due to price disparity. However big roasters are much more cautious to change blends (fierce competition on retail market) therefore have no alternatives than keep buying Conilon. Rain and sunshine in good rotation is improving the pace of coffee entering the market. Quality remains poor, as El Niño definitely has affected the quality of the first picks of the main crop and of course, the broca infestation is at high levels !! Measures from FNC to export undergrades were published this month, so officially Colombia can export that type of coffee. Still too early to tell differentials … Nov14 – Oct15 production is up 12%. Activities at this time entail coffee picking, observing different collecting percentages depending on the altitude being harvested. Those areas which began in August and September, at an altitude below 800 masl are now about to end, these cherries producing prime and extra prime coffees. The Semi Hard Bean harvest began in October and November marks the beginning of the Hard Bean Crop. Farms are finishing up wet mill maintenance and repairs. We now see a presence of intermediaries and exporters purchasing considerable quantities of cherries and parchment coffees. It is important to note that at this time bean picking is still seen affected by persistent rains. This is registered in all of the coffee regions and this is presenting difficulties in the drying process, the rains do also support the growth for some fungal diseases and cherry abortion. At this time reports show there is no significant damage in the road and bridge infrastructure close to the farms due to the rainy season, however due to soil saturation and persisting rains exporters are not ruling out unexpected river overflow, landslides and infrastructure damage Favourable weather conditions throughout the country with rains at night and sunshine during the day. The coffee flow is in good swing with improving yields. There are still concerns that up to 45% of the coffee currently arriving to the mills in Honduras is “damaged”, this is, due to the number of defects and cupping, the coffee is not suitable to be processed. This 45% is rather higher than the usual 20% “damage” rate. The reason behind this problem is the persistent drought that affected the country this winter, and that not only affected the coffee for lack of rain, but also didn´t allow the farmers to properly fertilize their fields, bringing serious doubts about the size and the quality of the coming crop. But let´s not be too pessimistic. We are still at the early stages of the harvesting, and we will have to wait a little bit more before making any assumptions, when higher altitude and quality coffees begin to arrive to the mills. Intermediaries are the most active players, building stocks and waiting for better prices. IHCAFE estimates that exports during the 15/16 season will rise 9.9% to reach 5.52 Mio bags. Cherries flow steady in the southern region. Mixed weather conditions countrywide. Crop develops well for this time of the year. Harvest is ending soon with little buying opportunities. Sizable coffee stocks are held back by farmers and middlemen with higher asking prices than replacement levels. A ongoing dry spell in the northern growing regions continues. In El Salvador the activity is still slow, despite the positive forecasts for the coming crop that announce an increase of at least 8%. The ongoing harvest of the new crop is progressing well. However, continuous rainfall in the areas of Yirga and Sidamo are delaying the parchment drying process. First new crop arrivals of washed qualities are expected to start soon. Main crop parchment eagerly awaited by the mills. Sunny days have complemented the harvesting and processing of the late crop which is now in full swing in all areas. Substantial amounts of rainfall have been recorded in the north and south of the country. Dry mills in the south receive what might potentially be the remnants of parchment from the current crop. Exporters estimate that about 35% of the crop is still held in the dry mills in the south. Some harvesting activity is still ongoing in parts of the north while the parchment deliveries to dry mills gains momentum. Arabica: Good weather conditions countrywide. The peak of the harvest is supporting the internal flow of washed Arabicas. Quality outlook is pleasant. Robusta: Weather is the key factor and more sun is needed to dry the cherries properly, but there are no Concerns about the volumes and the quality of the new crop. The heavy rains that have been ssen this month finally shifted to the east with Tamil Nadu reporting heavy rains and local floods. Harvesting has started in Kerala and some first fly crop picking has been seen in Karnataka. The continuously rainy weather slows down the picking and will delay the crop by a couple of weeks. Arrivals of green and parchment have remained this month and it is showing signs of staying the same through the off season. The Highland regions have had good rains which helped the previously set pin-heads and much needed moisture for the parched trees. Additionally round of flowering in the eastern highlands is beginning. Farmers have begun harvesting the first 10-20% of the crop. Rains have reduced the stress of the tress and in the highlands where the majority of The coffee is produced, the situation is reported to improve. The low lands still need rain. Damages cannot be determined for the time being. Sources: Volcafe, Atte, Taylor Winch, ICONA, Flavour Carlos Delfs, Founder Sense of Coffee and coffee expert. Carlo Delfs ist seit mehr als 30 Jahren im Kaffeegeschäft, Bereich Qualität tätig. Seine Firma Sense of Coffee GmbH in Cham bewertet Rohkaffees und Röstkaffeeprodukte aller Art. Produktentwicklung sowie Schulungen gehören zum weiteren Angebot. www.senseofcoffee.ch
Brazil CONAB released their 3rd estimate for the 2015/16 coffee crop. They reduced it by the second time to 42.2 million bags from 44.3 million (June 2015), being 31.3 million of Arabicas (32.9 in June) and 10.9 million of Conilons (11.4 in June). Meteorologists continue forecasting dry weather conditions for the coffee belt, particularly for Cerrado and Zona da Mata in central Minas Gerais state and also for Conilon areas in the north of Espirito Santo. South of Minas main producing area has been dry as well but some scattered and local rains have occurred which keeps the area less dryness affected. However the whole excellent flowering occurred in September is under risk, as rains are crucial for the buds development. According to meteorologists good and ample rains were expected to fall from northern of Parana, Sao Paulo, South of Minas, part of Cerrado and good part of Zona da Mata. This wetter pattern should induce final flowering in those plants who still have space for it. These rains are also welcomed for cherry setting and to start the development of newer cherries as well. Conilons areas at the north of Espirito Santo are facing completely different climate conditions than the other Southeast areas. Reservoirs are either empty or at very low levels. The drinking water distribution until the taps of the houses is erratic and complicated. Most of the Conilon´s plantations are irrigated and the water´s usage is restricted which may cause (unknown) problems for the proper cherries development. The non irrigated areas obviously suffer more and consequently should face even more damages. The bumper crop expected for next year should not materialize ! However, as it is said, Robusta´s trees are strong, resistant, therefore should recover (partially or totally), if weather conditions improve. Group 1 Everyone seems to be still concerned with the availability for big screen coffees, specially for fine coffees. The premium for these qualities has increased 25 cents in the last few months, despite of a strong USD. Group 2 Market remains tight and not liquid at all. Producers and long holders remain selective sellers with an eye opened to weather forecasts. Zona da Mata producers are too concerned with dry weather consequences on their farms. Although flowering has been promising they are praying for rains to get little buds into cherries. These worries regarding next crop obviously reflect on their trade behavior therefore they are reducing quantities on offer and increase their selling basis. Conilon Producers are scared of the weather conditions, temperatures warmed too fast after the winter, Very little amount of rains in the Northern of ES, the level of the water in the rivers are small and the Governor of ES decided to forbid the irrigation for 15 days in the region. Colombia Most coffee regions entering into the main picking weeks (main crop) and 2 points seem to take up all the discussions: lack of labour and lack of rains. First week of October very hot and completely dry,forecast for more of the same. Even getting enough water for washing coffee in the wet mills is now a problem. Yields of this main crop have been affected, more or less depending on altitude and micro-climates, and especially in the center and north of the country. Exporters prior 8% loss estimate for nationwide main crop volume is now going up to 10%. Instead of a 5 k cherry to 1 k parchment conversion, we are now at 6,5 to 7 k. Parchment to exportable Excelso yield is also very poor. An the broca making a feast, so a difficult story developing as internal prices very reduced by poor yields. Good news are some rains at the end of the month are alleviating the situation in central and northern growing regions. In order to increase the income of colombian producers, the National Coffee Growers Committee recently authorized the export of coffee beans that do not conform with the minimum Excelso Quality Export standards described in Resolution No. 5 of 2002 for Café de Colombia, including those beans known as Pasillas & Segundas. This measure seeks to improve the profitability of Colombia´s coffee growers and enhance their revenues with higher prices for beans that are usually traded in specific segments and market niches of the domestic market. Colombia will produce more than 13.0 million 60 kilo bags this year, Roberto Velez from FNC said. Colombia output has been steady recovering, thanks to new decease resistance varieties and better weather. Colombian coffee growers face soaring labor costs and harvesting delays as pickers leave for better-paid construction jobs. Construction has replaced oil and mining as the main motor of economic growth in the Andean nation. Farm labor may become even scarcer when work begins on President Juan Manuel Santos’ $17 billion highway program known as 4G, which aims to build 1,300 kilometers of new roads by 2018 and cut travel time between industrial centers and ports. Guatemala At this time activities consist of harvesting the crop, maintenance and infrastructure related to coffee pickers and necessary repairs to wet mills. The harvest started only in the lower zones for Extra primes and Primes, the main crop will come in from December onwards. Qualities and quantities are looking promising. Conditions are too wet for drying and picking, El Salvador El Salvador exported 11,475 bags of coffee in September, the National Coffee Council CSC reports, up 22% from the same month last year. That brings the total for the completed crop year to 597,683 bags, up 20% from 499,020 bags in the 2013/2014 season. Honduras The crop 2015/16 is now on the way with pickings in the lower production areas only. Qualities arriving at mills are still on the lower side with high defect count and low yields. Weather conditions are fair with a mix of sun and rain with colder and shorter days. Nicaragua Nicaragua exported 1,766,161 60-kg bags of coffee in the crop year which ended in September, up 0.2% from 1,770,043 bags in the 2013-2014 season, national export center Cetrex estimates. The 14/15 crop 14/15 is finished but Cetrex hasn’t been able to come with the final export numbers yet. Exporters estimate final 14/15 crop to be on target to 1.82 million bags and a possible carry over of 80,000 bags. For the crop of 15/16 exporters estimate 1.85 to 1.95 million bags. So, Nicaragua keeps on growing with quality and consistent coffee. Same as in Costa Rica, nicaraguan producers are nervous as they have invested a lot of money on their plantations and as the market has been erasing there might be no possibilities to gain back their money. For both origins but mostly for Nicaragua, producers, millers and coops will not have any alternative as to sell soon / now to reliable houses in order to get advance money from financial parties against the assignment of fresh contracts. Costa Rica The crop 14/15 has finished and final numbers have been released by ICAFE. The final number is around 1.4 million bags of 60 Kg which is a -3.5% below 13/14 crop. The Crop 15/16 is developing ok, thanks for September and so far October strong rainy pattern all over the country (usual for this time of the year); however we are still behind accumulated rains. Drier & hot rainy season and choppy rain regime before that time has for sure placed a burden on the size of bean and the size of next year crop. It will be a concentrated short crop so careful with quality of processing. Exporters foresee a good crop on quality terms specially good cup & character, similar to the last one. Colombia Exporters and cooperatives sitting on some good quantities of coffee waiting for a higher ICE market to sell out later. It looks that the internal market started to realize that they missed the boat. The coops are still hoping that the Fair Trade premium will solve part of the problems. Burundi ARFIC (L’Autorité de Régulation de la Filière Café du Burundi) have now finalized the cherry deliveries for 2015/16. The Fully Washed crop is estimated at 15,400 MT. Multinational companies led the way in terms of cherry collection and efficiency of assets. Around 340 MT of washed coffee has been sold. Washed coffee is usually about 30% of the total crop so this figure looks low. Assuming the coffee is still in Burundi it suggests large washed stocks held by exporters. Privatization Over the last year there doesn’t appear to have been a great deal of progress regarding the third round of privatization. Marketing In general there is a lot of coffee that is unsold in Burundi. About one third of the Burundi’s Fully Washed crop has been contracted. Exporters are reluctant to sell at these market levels, and are still adjusting to lower, year on year, differentials. Ethiopia Some areas in southern Ethiopia reporting that harvesting started with nice quality and volume on the trees. Kenya More rains will be needed for the ripening of main crop coffees, but also to provoke and fix early crop flowering. It’s been dry and dusty in Nairobi, though rains have been reported in many parts of the coffee growing regions along Mt Kenya. At the end of the month scattered showers in various locations indicated that the rains are arriving – certainly rural areas have been bigger beneficiaries so far and exporters look forward to some additional relief in coming weeks in Nairobi. The new standard gauge railway, largely financed and being built by the Chinese, is reportedly 55% complete. Once finalized, it will be a huge boost for trade volumes and efficiency Tanzania The weather is sunny and dry. Small holder producers begin preparing their farms ahead of the rains. Uganda Coffee exports in September in Uganda amounted 286.322 bags (232.702 Robusta and Arabica 53.260), while the total of the period October 2014/September 2015 achieved the 3.46 million bags (2.72 Robusta and 0.73 Arabica). These figures means a decrease of 1.26% than the quantity exported same period of the previous year. Robusta Uganda is waiting for the new crop to start arriving to the warehouses late October, and the spirits are high, both in terms of quantity and quality. At the moment however, there´s not much coffee around, and sellers are not matching any buying interest. India The prospects of new crop looks good at this point of time. The general impression is that the Arabica production will be higher by 15 – 20%. Robusta production could be the same or marginally lower. However, these expectations will depend on weather conditions for the next few months. The Arabica producers feel that the current market prices are discouraging them to produce Arabica coffee. They are fetching almost 3 times prices for intercrop Black Pepper and Cardamom. The coffee regions got sufficient and timely rains. Therefore the quality of new crop Arabica is expected to be good. PNG Dry conditions prevail throughout the highlands regions but sporadic isolated pockets of light rains have brought some relief to the predominantly dry landscape. Vietnam Crop reports are still positive for 15/16. Cherries are ripening in a good way and the water reservoirs are still at acceptable levels but the rainfall is 13 % below the 8 year average figures The weather is sunny with some intermittent rains, normal for October. Farmers are ‘planting’ pillars for pepper growing all around, the question will be, how much water does pepper need inside coffee plantation ? Arabica harvesting is under way in low lands of Lam Dong province, the most important growing area for Vietnam’s Arabica. Robusta harvesting is expected to start little by little in the next 3 or 4 weeks if weather conditions permit it. In a country that receives a dozen of typhoons or cyclones every year, the absence of them by now is good but cannot be underestimated. It may be even worse if arrives during peak time of harvesting. Indonesia The weather (El Nino) and the haze are the main topics. Both continue without a sign that it will end soon, rain is badly needed to stop the various fires in Sumatra that create this haze and as some areas did not have a drop of rain during the last 4 months, one fears for the worse. That this will have an impact is clear, if it affects the coffee areas we will know soon, as after the flowering the trees need water, if this doesn’t happen the flowers will abort. Various Peet´s coffee, the American coffee roaster owned by JAB holding group (owners of Jacobs Douwe Egberts and Caribou coffee as well) has acquired Stumptown coffee. Although Stumptown coffee has only 10 outlets, this roaster has made a name for itself as one of the most innovative roasters in the specialty coffee arena. Sources: Volcafe, Atte, Taylor Winch, ICONA, Flavour Carlos Delfs, Founder Sense of Coffee and coffee expert. Carlo Delfs ist seit mehr als 30 Jahren im Kaffeegeschäft, Bereich Qualität tätig. Seine Firma Sense of Coffee GmbH in Cham bewertet Rohkaffees und Röstkaffeeprodukte aller Art. Produktentwicklung sowie Schulungen gehören zum weiteren Angebot. www.senseofcoffee.ch
„Water is the most important variable in the preparation...